Preparing for the succession

The Hindu : Opinion / Leader Page Articles :: By Vaiju Naravane: "Although the Holy Father has cheated death several times in the past, surviving an assassination attempt in 1981, colon cancer in 1992, shoulder and hip injuries in 1992 and 1993 and the removal of his appendix in 1996, injury, disease, a relentless seven-days-a-week schedule and old age have taken their toll.

Theoretically speaking, according to church canon, any male Roman Catholic can be chosen Pope. In reality, however, the world's next Pope will be elected by secret ballot from amongst the members of the Sacred College of Cardinals, a custom observed for centuries. Pope John Paul II was elected Pope when he was barely 58 and has been at the helm of the Catholic Church since 1978, making him the third longest serving pontiff in history. The Pope holds ultra-conservative views on subjects such as abortion, birth control, euthanasia and the ordination of women. By appointing 106 of the 122 Cardinals eligible to vote, he has made certain there will be a continuity in papal doctrine and that his successor will uphold his conservative views.

Vatican watchers say there are three factors that will be important in the selection of the next Pope, and the first is age. The current Pope reigned for over 26 years, too long a period for many cardinals who this time around are likely to select an older candidate.

The second major requisite for the next Pope will be the ability to speak several languages. The influence and following of the Roman Catholic Church is on the wane in Europe. On the other hand, it is growing exponentially in other parts of the world such as Asia, Africa and Latin America. The next pontiff should be able to carry the Church's message to all parts of the globe and to do this should be adept at using the mass media. The new Pope will be required to speak Italian of course, since that is the language of the Vatican, but he will also be expected to speak English.

So will the Church return to the old tradition of electing an Italian pope or will the Cardinals take into account the fact that most Church followers now come from outside Europe and opt for an African, Asian or Latin American pontiff?

The biggest difference between the papal selection process now and 25 years ago is demographic. Of the five countries with the biggest Catholic populations, only one (Italy) is European. Forty-six per cent of the world's Catholics are in Latin America; there are more Catholics in the Philippines than in Italy. In 1955, there were 16 million Catholics in all of Africa; today there are 120 million. The cardinal-electors' geographical origin still reflects, if less than before, the rich world's control of a Church that increasingly finds its believers in the poor world. There are 66 European and 14 North American Cardinals, against 24 Latin Americans, 18 from Asia and Oceania and 13 Africans. So it will be interesting to note how this dynamics will work itself out.

The Pope can be elected by one of three methods. A unanimous voice-vote is permissible, as is the unanimous selection by the Cardinals of a 9- to 15-member committee, which then must agree on a Pope. The election rules were last changed by Pope John Paul II in 1996 with his Apostolic Constitution, or ruling, called Universi Dominici Gregis (All the Lord's Flock).

One of the most significant changes introduced by the constitution — intended to prevent a repetition of some of the interminable conclaves of the past — is that if no one has been elected by a two-thirds majority after 30 ballots, the Cardinals may vote to elect the Pope by an absolute majority of half-plus-one instead.

As soon as the Pope dies, the cardinal camerlengo or chamberlain, Cardinal Eduardo Martinez Somalo, becomes the temporary head of the Church. He is responsible for arranging the funeral and burial of the Pope and organising the electoral conclave.

The Cardinals will be administered an oath of secrecy when they enter the conclave knowing that they will be automatically excommunicated if they break it. The conclave cannot be held until two weeks after the Pope's death. This is meant to give all the Cardinals enough time to reach Rome and it must not start later than 20 days after the Pope's passing.

Four ballots are held each day, two in the morning and two in the afternoon as the conclave moves slowly towards a consensus. The ballot papers are burned in an old stove in the Sistine Chapel, and the smoke emerges from chimney stack observable from St. Peter's Square. If no candidate has been elected, the smoke is black. If a new Pope is chosen, a chemical is mixed with the papers and the smoke, hopefully, emerges as white.

In practice, the next Pope will be chosen from among the 119 Princes of the Church attending the conclave. Once a Cardinal has been chosen, he is asked if he agrees to be Pope and by what name he wishes to be known. Once he has done this he becomes, Catholics believe, Christ's vicar on earth. The dean of the College of Cardinals, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, will then step on to the central loggia of St. Peter's basilica to proclaim "Habemus Papam (we have a pope)." The new Pope then appears on the balcony to deliver his apostolic blessing.

Many Popes have been formally installed with a coronation, but Pope John Paul II refused a coronation and was installed as the Pope during a Mass in St. Peter's Square.

Cardinal Francis Arinze, 70: Nigerian and black, he is the former head of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue. A Vatican insider, he is considered capable and humane. But he is also black and the Church may not yet be ready to take so dramatic a step as to appoint a black Pope. A large chunk of the donations to the Church comes from Europe and America and it is not evident that a black Pope will be particularly warmly welcomed by the Church's major donors. The selection of a black Pope would alienate some white Catholics. But the biggest strike against him is that the African church, while growing rapidly is still too young, especially compared to the Church in Latin America.

Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, Honduran, 60, is considered too young for the post. While there is no consensus on a Latin American candidate, the name of Rodriguez, formerly head of the Latin American Bishops group, is most often mentioned. He has been a strong opponent of Third World debt and an advocate for the Church's anti-poverty mission. A polyglot, media-savvy Latin American who knows everyone in the College, he would represent a powerful statement on behalf of the huge and poverty-stricken Latin American Church, as well as the rest of the developing world. Rodriguez is also a supporter of decentralisation, which may be the most important factor of all. His main drawback is that he is seen as being hostile to the press.

Lubomyr Husar, 70, of Ukraine, is considered almost saintly. His age is about right but the main drawback is his nationality. He is American. Husar is head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church and has American citizenship. There are three objections to Husar's candidacy. First, he represents Eastern Europe, and after John Paul many believe that region of the world will have to wait a few generations to produce another Pope. Secondly, he is an American citizen, and observers believe it would be diplomatically impossible to elect a superpower pontiff.

One of the strongest candidates is Dionigi Tettamanzi from Italy, conservative and well-liked by the very hardline Opus Dei movement. Only five per cent of the world's Catholics live in Italy but an Italian stands a good chance because 35 per cent of the voting Cardinals either represent an Italian diocese or work for the Vatican administration.

Austrian Christoph Schönborn is only 58, the age at which John Paul II became Pope. Considered an intellectual heavyweight, he is a respected theologian. His big problem is his age.

Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino, 66, from Cuba has the advantage of being Hispanic and coming from a land where God is given short shrift.

Godfried Danneels, 70 and from Belgium, is considered witty but too liberal. On the off chance that the cardinals want to go with a liberal, he may be the man. "

Copyright © 2005, The Hindu