Meeting of two Gulf enemies

Meeting of two Gulf enemies :: Corriere.it: "Over the past few days, our attention has been focused on London’s Day After, and the blame shifting that sometimes overshadows the war on terrorism. We have had little time to spare for another crucial event, the visit to Iran of the head of Iraq’s provisional government, Ibrahim Al-Jafaari. It is the first such high-level visit since Saddam’s attack a quarter of a century ago cost the two countries eight years of war and one million dead. History records almost as many reconciliations as it does wars, but the renewal of political dialogue between Baghdad and Tehran falls into the very high risk category. It could contribute to stability in the area, but it could also exacerbate the volatile nature of the Gulf, further complicating the war on terrorism.

Mr Al-Jafaari took with him to Iran a burdensome baggage. Although provisional, Mr Al-Jafaari’s government is the first to be legitimated by the polls after Saddam’s overthrow. It is the first to represent Iraq’s Shiite majority. And it is also the first to tackle a challenging constituent process. Such credentials are not exactly calculated to upset the Iranians. Yet no one can ignore the fact that Tehran’s goodwill is influenced by last month’s election of the ultraradical Mahmud Ahmadinejad, and above all by the new president’s determination to persevere with Iran’s nuclear intentions.

We can thus discern two possible and contrasting outcomes for the game that has just started. The positive scenario sees Iran concluding an agreement with European negotiators on the exclusively civilian use of nuclear energy, and encouraging the recovery of the Sunnis by Iraqi Shiites, thus pulling the carpet from under the feet of local terrorists and facilitating the exit strategies of foreign forces. In the negative scenario, there will be no nuclear agreement, and the confrontation between Tehran on the one hand and Europeans and Americans on the other will intensify. In Iraq, it will be easier to stoke the fires of a creeping civil war that is already being waged, and could lead to the break-up of the country. It is too early to say whether one or other of the scenarios is more likely. But we do know today that much of the Arab world, which has a Sunni majority, is worried by the possible creation of an Iraqi-Iranian Shiite bloc.

We also know that a nuclear-capable Iran could trigger a military response, and set the entire region ablaze. We should also know, without having to wait for reports from Chatham House or the CIA, or Tony Blair’s predictable denials, that Islamic terrorism has a lot to do with Iraq. Even though it came into being before the attack on Saddam, and even though it strikes at random and employs sophisticated strategies, terrorism was given an unexpected boost to recruitment, training and motivation by the war in Iraq. We know that the killers’ puppetmasters will be monitoring closely the progress of Iraq-Iran relations, well aware that the aftermath of Mr Al-Jafaari’s landmark trip could bring good or bad news for their despicable enterprise. All this is enough to tell us that the struggle against terrorism must become considerably more sophisticated, and must take into simultaneous account an Iraq and an Iran that have always seesawed between hostility and complicity.

Iran and Iraq Play Shiite Card by Franco Venturini - English translation by Giles Watson "