Republicans May Lose Grip on Statehouses

WSJ.com - Term Limits, Tax Backlash Could Provide An Opportunity for Democrats in 2006 By DEBORAH SOLOMON : "Democrats will have to work to hold some current seats as well -- in Iowa, where Gov. Tom Vilsack is retiring; Michigan; and Wisconsin. But gubernatorial races may be a better opportunity for the party than the Congressional contests in which redistricting has limited the number of competitive House seats. Winning governorships may also be more beneficial to Democrats chances' of taking back the White House.

Republicans also face political storms elsewhere. Scandal has rocked the administration of departing Republican Gov. Bob Taft in Ohio. In California, former actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is seeking a new term, but he is reeling from battles with labor unions and the defeat of ballot initiatives he championed in a special election last month.

Other struggles stem from tax-and-spending decisions pushed by various Republican governors amid the revenue crunch created by the 2001-2002 recession. Beset by one of the steepest state revenue drops since the Depression, caused by falling income and capital-gains taxes, several reneged on pledges not to raise taxes.

In Alabama, Republican Gov. Bob Riley angered party faithful when he unsuccessfully pushed for a state-tax increase to deal with a budget shortfall of more than $500 million. He faces a Republican primary challenge from Roy Moore, the former state Supreme Court justice who installed a Ten Commandments monument in the rotunda of the state Judicial building.

Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski is also facing trouble after breaking a campaign pledge to not raise taxes. Mr. Murkowski hasn't said whether he will run for re-election but is expected to face a fight if he does. He also must contend with questions about his decision to appoint his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to fill his Senate seat in 2002.

In Nevada, tax increases pushed by term-limited Gov. Kenny Guinn have soured the political environment for Republicans. In Colorado, Gov. Bill Owens has faced a backlash after switching positions and advocating that voters rescind the state's strict spending cap, which he said was hampering funding for education and other services. Mr. Owens is also term-limited and thus won't be on the ballot, but Republicans face a potential battle to retain control of the state.

In some cases, Republican struggles have little to do with tax-and-spending issues. Maryland's Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich is dealing with controversy over whether his administration targeted certain state bureaucrats for termination for partisan reasons. In Democratic-leaning New York, the gubernatorial prospects of Attorney General Eliot Spitzer are lifted by his corruption-fighting profile and the fact that Mr. Pataki has served three terms since unseating Democrat Mario Cuomo in 1994.

William Weld, moved to New York after leaving the Massachusetts governorship in 1997. He is now running to succeed Mr. Pataki but trails Mr. Spitzer in the polls."