Survey on Internet's future may eat its words

IHT - NYT: "Last September, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, a research organization in Washington, sent out a survey asking 24 questions about the future of the Internet to a wide range of technology specialists, scholars and industry leaders. Some 1,200 responded, and widespread agreement was hard to find.

Some of the more cherished notions about the Internet - that it isolates people from real-world interaction, for instance, or that people use it to find reinforcement for their political views and filter out opposing ones - generated deeply divided reactions among the respondents. Some 42 percent said they agreed with the assertion that civic involvement would increase in the next 10 years as people sought and found organizations to join online; nearly 30 percent disagreed. Roughly 40 percent viewed the proliferation of online medical resources as a potential boon to health care management and access; 30 percent deemed that unlikely.

One assertion on which there was widespread agreement was that the infrastructure of the Internet would be the target of "at least one devastating attack" in the next 10 years. Sixty-six percent of respondents agreed. Even here, there was dissent. "If you mean very costly, yes," one respondent wrote. "If you mean a failure that cascades to other segments of society, with widespread suffering or loss of life, then no."

Still, for investors, policy makers and others interested in getting a glimpse of what might be just over the horizon, there are hints to be had. The survey results solidly confirm what media watchers may already know: that the Internet and the rise of the blogger are expected to drive greater change in the news media and publishing industries than in any other sector of society."