The Cover Models May Not Be Fatter, but the Issues Are

STUART ELLIOTT - New York Times: "THIRTY days hath September, but that may not be enough time to look through the month's advertising-stuffed magazines.

For years, September has brought heavy issues of monthlies, traditionally women's fashion and beauty magazines like Elle, Harper's Bazaar and Vogue. More recently, other magazines are also producing ad-thick issues, in categories like men's lifestyle, health and fitness, shelter and travel.

"We even did our bit in the fashion area," said Bill Congdon, the publisher of Popular Mechanics, listing ad pages in the September issue from Wrangler, Dickies, Levi's and Wolverine boots.

Marketers of products like apparel and cosmetics, which seek to reach consumers as the fall fashions begin to appear, have been joined by automakers, whose new-model years begin Oct. 1; retailers, hoping to stimulate demand ahead of the holiday season; sellers of products like sneakers and video games, sponsoring promotions tied to National Football League games; and marketers of children's merchandise, taking aim at parents as school starts.

"Advertising follows the seasons, and everyone's got this big season in September," said Jill Seelig, publisher of O: The Oprah Magazine and O at Home, which like Popular Mechanics are parts of the Hearst Magazines division of the Hearst Corporation.

As a result, how easy or difficult it is to page through - or in some cases, lift - the September issues of the major monthlies has become a barometer of the intensity of demand for ads beyond September. A look at ad-page counts for next month compared with September 2004 suggests that the slow recovery that began this year - through July, ad pages rose 1.9 percent, according to the Publishers Information Bureau - is picking up speed, but still lags other media.

"We're having a very, very good year," said Thomas A. Florio, the publisher of Vogue, part of the Condé Nast Publications division of Advance Publications, "but I don't call it till it's over."

Vogue, which usually runs more ad pages in September than any monthly, will do it again. The almost 691 ad pages the issue carries will break a record of nearly 651 ad pages, set last September.

"It's a big number to stand in front of every year to look at," Mr. Florio said, adding: "You never point to the outfield. You keep your head down and do your business."

That attitude is echoed by his colleagues and competitors.

"I'm already worried about next September," said Esther Laufer, associate publisher for marketing at Cosmopolitan, owned by Hearst, after booking 248.6 ad pages for the September 2005 issue, up 9.4 percent from last September.

The issue was thickened with ads to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the makeover of Cosmopolitan by the editor Helen Gurley Brown, and "some people ran multiple pages they may not have run otherwise."

"You used to be able to read the year or quarter" based on September's results, Ms. Laufer said. "Now it's month to month."

The ups and downs of the bumpy market have thinned the September issues of many magazines.

Results for Out were "a little disappointing," said Joe Landry, publisher of Out and other magazines owned by LPI Media, referring to a 19.7 percent decline from last September. Gains in categories like personal care and home entertainment products were offset, he said, by lost ad pages from liquor, fashion, car and drug brands.

"We're going to be down slightly for the year," Mr. Landry predicted, after a 27 percent gain in 2004, although there will be some compensatory growth in ad pages for a new Out sibling, Out Traveler, publishing six issues compared with four in 2004.

As for next year's demand, "I can't even go there yet," Mr. Landry said.

One magazine that routinely hits triple digits in September ad pages, Vanity Fair from Condé Nast, suffered a 20.4 percent decline. The publisher, Louis Cona, attributed the shortfall to the absence of several ad inserts that ran in September 2004, including a 40-pager from Guess featuring Paris Hilton.

"It's those one-time opportunities," Mr. Cona said. "You take it when you get it and you take your lumps next year." Although Vanity Fair is likely to end 2005 with fewer ad pages than in 2004, he said, "revenue will be up."

Ad pages in InStyle, a newcomer to the ranks of hefty September publications, will be down 1.8 percent - "virtually flat" compared with last September, said Stephanie George, the magazine's president.

"We'll probably be up 5 percent by year's end," said Ms. George, whose magazine is part of the Time Inc. division of Time Warner. Categories like automotive, beauty and fashion continue to be strong, she added.

Ms. Seelig of O said she remained cautiously optimistic, despite a 25 percent decline at O from last September. The October issue will be "the second-biggest in our history," she said, with more than 200 ad pages. And requests for proposals from advertisers and agencies for future buys are "coming fast and furious," she said.

Publishers whose September issues fared well said they expected that momentum to continue. "I don't like to brag, but they're all up," said Tom Beusse, president for magazine publishing at Rodale, listing titles including Bicycling, Men's Health, Prevention and Runner's World.

"I have a saying I like to use a lot: 'Fit is the new rich,' " Mr. Beusse said. "Rodale has long owned this space, but it wasn't particularly mainstream. Advertisers are now using fitness and health as a platform, even if they're not in the category." He cited autos and consumer electronics as examples.

At the Meredith Corporation, which publishes more than a dozen magazines like Better Homes and Gardens and Ladies' Home Journal, "September was better than August, and October will be better than September," said Jack Griffin, president of the publishing group.

Among the ad categories contributing to the improvements, he added, are toiletries and cosmetics, prescription drugs, fashion and financial services.

Those advertisers were also credited with helping results at Parenting magazine, published by Time Inc., which will run the most ad pages for any September issue in its 18 years, said Jeff Wellington, vice president and group publisher, and Good Housekeeping, the venerable Hearst women's service magazine, where ad pages increased 29.8 percent from last September.

"And you're talking about a $200,000 page, not a $20,000 page," said Patricia Haegele, senior vice president and publisher, referring to the magazine's rate card.

With September issues closed, what next for hustling publishers?

"We're still chasing our last couple ads for October," said Peter King Hunsinger, publisher of GQ, part of Condé Nast.

Longer term, look for the race to sell paper ads to be complemented - if not someday supplanted - by the race to sell pixels, as Web sites like style.com and men.style.com, the online homes of GQ, Vogue, Details and W magazines, ramp up efforts to attract advertisers during September."